The Ghost of Super Bowl Past will pay us all a visit Christmas night. Don’t be surprised if the Ghost of Super Bowl Future shows up, too.
The 49ers are 6-point home favorites over the Ravens on Monday. It’s a rematch of the 2013 Super Bowl won by Baltimore and a possible preview of the 2024 Super Bowl at Allegiant Stadium.
San Francisco is the 2-1 favorite to win the NFL championship and the Ravens are the +550 second choice. The 49ers (11-3) are always a popular play in Nevada and represent a liability at the state’s sportsbooks.
“We just keep writing money on them and it doesn’t stop,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said. “The Niners have just been supported all season and right now there’s a decent gap in the power ratings between them and the next best team.”
The NFC is a 3½-point favorite over the AFC in the early Super Bowl line at the SuperBook.
“That’s really all predicated on the Niners,” Sherman said. “If the Niners are in the Super Bowl, it will be over 3 against any opponent.”
Books need the Ravens (11-3) in Monday’s matchup, despite sharp money on Baltimore driving the opening line down from 6½ to 5½. It then crept back up to 6. BetMGM reported sharp money on both sides.
“We originally went back and forth from -5½ to 6,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “But now it’s all -6 with 49ers money overpowering Ravens money.”
Underdogs have won the last seven “Monday Night Football” games outright. The Ravens said they felt “disrespected” by the point spread.
“I don’t want them to pick us. I like being the underdog,” Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “I believe we play better when we’re doubted and people aren’t choosing us to win the game … so just do it all the way to February. That’s all I ask.”
Jackson is 9-4 straight up and 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
“Hopefully some people lose money betting with them and make some money betting with us,” Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said.
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP award, but Jackson could close the gap if Baltimore (+215 on the money line) pulls off the upset.
“If the Ravens win and Lamar Jackson shines in the game and Purdy struggles, it really could sway a lot of the odds,” Sherman said.
Six of the remaining 10 entrants in the running for the $9.2 million prize in the Circa Survivor contest took the Broncos over the Patriots on Sunday night.
Las Vegas poker pro Sean Perry, who has the entry Goldenboy, was among those that selected Denver. So was local showman Kenny Davidsen, who has the entry Bow Tie Cabaret.
One entry survived Thursday with the Rams (beat Saints 30-22). Two contestants advanced with the Bears (beat Cardinals 27-16).
Another contestant sweated out the Packers’ 33-30 win over the Panthers, surviving Carolina’s fourth-quarter rally from a 14-point deficit.
Quarterback Bryce Young threw touchdown passes three minutes apart to tie the game at 30 with 4:05 left. Green Bay then drove for kicker Anders Carlson’s go-ahead 32-yard field goal with 19 seconds left. It still wasn’t over. Young completed a 22-yard pass to wide receiver Adam Thielen at the Packers’ 31, but the Panthers couldn’t spike the ball before time expired.
The game was a tough loss for bettors who backed Green Bay, which closed as a 3½-point favorite.
Bettors bounce back
Books did very well on the NFL on Saturday as both underdogs covered. The Steelers (+3) whipped the Bengals 34-11. The Bills (-12½) beat the Chargers 24-22 but didn’t cover.
Bettors bounced back Sunday as favorites were 5-3-1 ATS before the night game between the Broncos and Patriots. The Browns (-3, beat Texans 36-22) and Lions (-2½, beat Vikings 30-24) boosted bankrolls.
“Bettors were all over the Browns and the Lions,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
In a matchup of the NFL’s two highest-scoring squads, bettors were all over the Cowboys-Dolphins game to go over 48½. The teams settled for seven field goals instead as the game stayed under in Miami’s 22-20 win. The Dolphins (-1½) barely covered on Jason Sanders’ 29-yard field goal as time expired.
Jets burn bets
Bettors who backed the Jets over Washington took a tough loss. New York led 27-7 late in the third quarter. The Commanders then scored touchdowns on three straight possessions to go ahead 28-27.
Kicker Greg Zuerlein kicked a 54-yard field goal with five seconds left to lift the Jets to a 30-28 victory. But they didn’t cover as 3-point favorites.